As the U.S. gears up for the 2024 presidential election, its outcome is likely to have considerable effects on India-U.S. relations. With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offering contrasting policies, India finds itself evaluating which candidate aligns more closely with its strategic, economic, and social interests.
Trade and Economic Relations
India’s trade relationship with the U.S., its largest trading partner, is a central area where the election outcome could make a substantial difference. Under Trump’s “America First” agenda, he had a reputation for a protectionist trade approach, targeting countries with high tariffs, including India, which he has criticized for “unfair” practices. If reelected, Trump may further push for tariffs and trade restrictions, potentially challenging India’s trade surplus with the U.S. However, his emphasis on reducing reliance on China could indirectly benefit India, as companies seek alternative locations for production
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, may continue Biden’s more measured trade policies, which focus less on direct tariffs and more on strategic partnerships in critical areas like technology and manufacturing. Her approach would likely maintain the Biden administration’s emphasis on strengthening technological alliances, such as through the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), which has led to collaborations on semiconductors and AI between the two countries
Defense and Security
The Indo-Pacific region’s stability is a priority for both the U.S. and India, especially amid rising tensions with China. Both candidates have demonstrated interest in bolstering defense cooperation with India to counterbalance China’s influence. Trump initiated the Indo-Pacific security strategy, which aligns with India’s interests in maintaining regional security. Harris would likely continue supporting this approach, given her administration’s similar stance on strengthening defense ties and working closely within the Quad alliance
Social Issues and Immigration Policies
Kamala Harris, with her Indian heritage, could bring a more empathetic approach toward Indian social issues, though her policy record suggests a focus on progressive domestic reforms rather than strong engagement with India-specific causes. During her vice presidency, Harris has sometimes voiced criticisms on human rights matters concerning India, such as the situation in Kashmir, which may cause some diplomatic friction.
In terms of immigration, Trump’s stance may negatively impact India, particularly with his proposed restrictions on H-1B visas, widely used by Indian professionals. Harris would likely uphold more lenient immigration policies, favoring skilled workers and potentially easing the pathway for Indian tech talent in the U.S.
Diplomatic Chemistry and Ideological Alignment
Diplomatically, Trump has shown a good personal rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which could ease negotiations. Trump’s alignment with nationalist ideals resonates with India’s current government, possibly leading to smoother cooperation. Harris, while respectful toward India, lacks a strong personal connection with Modi, focusing more on policy continuity than personal alliances
ltimately, both candidates offer unique advantages for India. Trump’s emphasis on a tougher stance against China and strong bilateral defense ties could align well with India’s security goals, though his protectionist economic policies and restrictive immigration stance may be challenging. Harris could sustain beneficial economic and technological collaborations while offering a more predictable, less confrontational approach. For India, the election’s outcome will shape not only immediate trade and defense relations but also long-term cooperation in technology and diplomacy.
