Paromita Das
GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 1st Feb. Bharat has high hopes from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s forthcoming Union Budget 2025, scheduled for February 1. With the Economic Survey 2025 projecting GDP growth between 6.3% and 6.8%, the nation looks forward to policy measures that will sustain economic momentum while addressing emerging challenges. From strengthening infrastructure and boosting private sector participation to ensuring fiscal discipline and supporting defence modernization, expectations are high. As the government unveils its financial roadmap, all eyes will be on reforms aimed at job creation, industry growth, and long-term economic resilience in an evolving global landscape.
Key Highlights of the Economic Survey 2025
Stable Economic Growth
Despite global economic challenges, Bharat’s real GDP growth for FY 2024-25 is estimated at 6.4%, aligning with the decadal average. The Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is also expected to grow by 6.4% during this period, underscoring the economy’s resilience.
Sectoral Contributions
- Agriculture: The sector remains robust, operating above trend levels, contributing significantly to the economy.
- Industry: The industrial sector has rebounded, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, indicating a strong recovery.
- Services: The services sector is approaching its historical growth trajectory, highlighting its pivotal role in economic expansion.
Inflation Trends
Retail headline inflation has declined from 5.4% in FY 2023-24 to 4.9% in April-December 2024-25. Both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project inflation to stabilize around 4% in FY 2026, suggesting effective inflation management.
Foreign Investments and Capital Flows
- Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI): While FPI has shown mixed trends due to global uncertainties, Bharat’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals have kept overall inflows positive.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): FDI inflows have shown signs of revival, despite a temporary dip due to increased repatriation and disinvestment.
Forex Reserves
Bharat’s Forex reserves reached $706 billion in September 2024 and stood at $640.3 billion by December 27, 2024, covering 89.9% of external debt, reflecting a strong external sector position.
Banking and Insurance Sector Stability
- Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA): The GNPA ratio of commercial banks declined to 2.6% by September 2024, the lowest in years, indicating improved asset quality.
- Credit-GDP Gap: The credit-GDP gap narrowed to 0.3% in Q1 2024-25, showing sustainable credit growth.
- Insurance and Pensions: Insurance premiums grew by 7.7% in FY 2023-24, and pension subscribers increased by 16% year-on-year as of September 2024, highlighting increased financial inclusion.
Export Growth and Trade Outlook
Total exports (merchandise and services) grew by 6% in the first nine months of FY25, reaching $602.6 billion. Exports of goods (excluding petroleum and gems & jewelry) saw robust growth of 10.4%, indicating a diversified export base.
MSME Credit Growth
Credit to Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) grew by 13% year-on-year as of November 2024, outpacing the 6.1% growth for large enterprises. However, credit growth for services and personal loans moderated to 5.9% and 8.8%, respectively.
Call for Deregulation
The Economic Survey emphasizes accelerating deregulation efforts to enhance economic freedom and reduce bureaucratic bottlenecks. It stresses the importance of improving human resource training, resolving regulatory impediments, and increasing capital formation to sustain long-term growth.
Infrastructure Development and Private Sector Participation
The government has prioritized infrastructure expansion, focusing on sustainable construction practices and innovative financing models. However, the survey underscores the need for greater private sector participation to meet the ambitious infrastructure goals under ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’.
Defence Sector Focus in Union Budget 2025
Bharat’s defence sector is crucial for national security and indigenous production. The Union Budget 2025, scheduled for February 1, is anticipated to provide significant developments in defence manufacturing. The defence budget has seen substantial growth over the years, with allocations increasing from ₹2.53 trillion in 2014 to ₹6.22 trillion for FY2024-25, indicating about a 2.5 times increment. This reflects the government’s commitment to modernization, autonomy, and innovation in the military.
Conclusion
The Economic Survey 2025 paints a picture of cautious optimism for Bharat’s economic future. While the projected GDP growth of 6.3% to 6.8% is encouraging, it is imperative to address underlying challenges such as regulatory bottlenecks and the need for increased private sector participation in infrastructure development. The focus on deregulation and human resource development is a step in the right direction, but effective implementation will be key. Additionally, the anticipated boost in the defence budget underscores the importance of national security and indigenous manufacturing, aligning with the broader goal of self-reliance.
As Bharat navigates the complexities of a post-pandemic global economy, the insights from the Economic Survey 2025 provide a roadmap for sustainable and inclusive growth. The survey reflects a balanced approach, emphasizing stable economic expansion, sectoral contributions, controlled inflation, and strategic investments in infrastructure and defence. While the projected GDP growth of 6.3% to 6.8% signals optimism, policymakers must remain vigilant in addressing key structural challenges.
The resilience of Bharat’s industrial sector, coupled with a recovering services sector, suggests that the economy is on solid footing. However, the need for deeper deregulation, increased private sector participation, and enhanced human resource development cannot be overstated. The call for reducing bureaucratic bottlenecks and improving capital formation aligns with the broader vision of making Bharat an economic powerhouse under the ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’ initiative.
Additionally, the focus on defence modernization and indigenous manufacturing in the upcoming Union Budget 2025 underscores Bharat’s commitment to national security and self-reliance. The steady rise in the defence budget highlights a strategic shift towards strengthening domestic production capabilities, reducing dependency on foreign imports, and positioning Bharat as a global leader in defence technology.
As the government unveils its Union Budget on February 1, 2025, expectations remain high for reforms that will ensure long-term economic stability and equitable growth. The key to Bharat’s continued progress lies in its ability to adapt to global economic shifts, attract foreign investments, and implement policies that foster innovation, infrastructure development, and employment generation. With a clear vision and decisive policy action, Bharat is well-positioned to sustain its growth momentum and emerge as a leading global economic force in the coming decades.
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