Delhi on the Brink of Change: Exit Polls Predict BJP’s Return After 27 Years, AAP Faces Tough Challenge

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 8th Feb. The Changing Political Landscape in Delhi

As the Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 reach their final stage, all eyes are on the vote count, which is expected to determine whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will finally reclaim power in the national capital after 27 years. Exit polls have predicted a landslide victory for the BJP, signaling a potential end to the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) decade-long dominance under Arvind Kejriwal’s leadership. If these projections hold, Delhi’s political landscape is on the brink of a historic transformation, with BJP making a resounding comeback.

However, past elections have shown that exit polls do not always translate into final results, and AAP remains hopeful of defying predictions. The party, which has enjoyed significant voter trust in previous elections, dismisses the exit polls as misleading, pointing to its strong grassroots presence and welfare schemes. Meanwhile, BJP leaders are confident that Delhi voters have chosen change, bolstered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and the party’s focus on governance and infrastructure development.

With the official results set to be declared today, Delhi’s voters, political analysts, and party workers await a decisive verdict that could reshape the capital’s future. Will BJP’s resurgence mark a new era for Delhi, or will AAP stage an unexpected comeback? The final outcome will determine the course of governance in the capital for the next five years.

Exit Poll Analysis: Predicting BJP’s Big Win

Several reputed agencies have released their exit poll projections, with most predicting a clear majority for BJP. Here’s a breakdown:

With 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly, the majority mark stands at 36. Almost all exit polls indicate that BJP will comfortably cross this threshold, with some even suggesting a landslide victory of over 50 seats.

Why BJP Is Expected to Win: Key Factors Behind the Shift

If BJP does manage to sweep the Delhi elections, it will mark a historic political comeback after nearly three decades. Several factors have contributed to this possible shift in voter sentiment:

1. The Modi Factor and National Sentiment

PM Narendra Modi’s popularity has been a game-changer in multiple state elections. The BJP’s success in the 2024 General Elections, coupled with Modi’s focus on Delhi’s infrastructural development, has resonated with voters. His personal brand of leadership, welfare schemes, and vision for Delhi have likely influenced the electorate.

2. AAP’s Governance Fatigue and Controversies

AAP’s 10-year rule in Delhi began with massive public support, but recent controversies have dented its image. Allegations of corruption, internal party conflicts, and Kejriwal’s confrontations with the Lieutenant Governor (LG) and central agencies have created political instability. Issues like the liquor policy scam and allegations of mismanagement in Delhi’s education and healthcare models have also weakened AAP’s standing.

3. Anti-Incumbency and Voter Dissatisfaction

After two consecutive terms, anti-incumbency sentiment appears to be rising against AAP. Issues like air pollution, water scarcity, traffic congestion, and irregularities in governance have contributed to growing dissatisfaction among Delhi’s residents.

4. BJP’s Strong Election Machinery

BJP’s extensive booth-level presence, targeted campaigning, and strategic use of social media have given it an edge. The party’s focus on Hindu voters, outreach to Delhi’s traders and business communities, and strong organizational structure have played a significant role in turning the tide.

5. Congress’s Decline Benefitting BJP

Congress has failed to remain relevant in Delhi politics since losing power to AAP in 2013. Many traditional Congress voters have either shifted to AAP or BJP, further strengthening the latter’s position.

AAP’s Counterattack: Can Kejriwal Defy the Predictions?

Despite unfavorable exit poll projections, AAP isn’t giving up without a fight. The party has questioned the accuracy of these predictions, pointing to previous miscalculations in Delhi’s 2020 Assembly elections, where exit polls had underestimated AAP’s performance.

AAP’s strategy moving forward will likely focus on:

• Highlighting its governance track record in education, health, and water-electricity subsidies.
• Presenting itself as a victim of BJP’s political attacks, particularly in cases like the liquor scam investigation.
• Mobilizing its core voter base, especially among lower-income groups and slum dwellers.

While these efforts might help mitigate losses, exit polls indicate that AAP’s grip on Delhi is slipping.

Congress: A Party in Decline

Once the dominant force in Delhi politics, Congress has been reduced to irrelevance in the state. The party’s failure to rebuild its voter base and its lack of strong leadership have left it struggling to stay in the fight.

With most exit polls predicting zero or a maximum of three seats, Congress seems unlikely to make a comeback in Delhi anytime soon.

Implications of BJP’s Victory: What It Means for Delhi

If BJP forms the government in Delhi, it will mark a new political chapter for the capital. Key changes could include:

• Stronger alignment with the central government, leading to better coordination on development projects.
• Reevaluation of AAP’s flagship policies, including subsidies on electricity and water.
• A new governance model, with BJP focusing on infrastructure, law and order, and economic growth.

However, challenges will remain, particularly in addressing the expectations of Delhi’s residents and proving that BJP can deliver on its promises after 27 years out of power.

Will Exit Polls Translate to Reality?

While the exit poll results heavily favor BJP, it’s essential to remember that predictions don’t always match actual results. Several past elections have shown exit polls overestimating or underestimating parties’ performances.

• In 2015, exit polls predicted AAP would win around 40 seats, but the party secured a massive 67 out of 70 seats.
• In 2020, exit polls gave AAP around 50 seats, but it won 62 seats, proving even favorable predictions can be inaccurate.

If AAP manages to retain power, it will be a major upset for BJP. However, if BJP’s projected victory materializes, it will be a historic political shift.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Delhi

As Delhi eagerly awaits the official results on February 8, the exit polls have set the stage for what could be a major political transformation.

• If BJP wins, it marks the end of AAP’s decade-long rule and a new political direction for Delhi.
• If AAP defies predictions, it will be a remarkable political comeback, reinforcing its stronghold in the capital.
• For Congress, the election remains a test of survival.

Regardless of the outcome, these elections will shape Delhi’s governance, policies, and future political dynamics for years to come. The final results will ultimately reveal whether Delhi is ready for change or if AAP still commands the trust of its people.

The post Delhi on the Brink of Change: Exit Polls Predict BJP’s Return After 27 Years, AAP Faces Tough Challenge appeared first on Global Governance News- Asia's First Bilingual News portal for Global News and Updates.

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