Paromita Das
New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set an ambitious goal for Bharat—to become an advanced nation by 2047, marking 100 years of independence. This vision is deeply rooted in Modi’s economic philosophy, which he has championed since his tenure as Chief Minister of Gujarat, where he delivered double-digit growth rates. However, translating this vision to the national level has been far more challenging, with Bharat averaging a 6% annual GDP growth rate under his leadership.
The road to becoming an advanced economy like the United States requires Bharat to achieve sustained high growth, economic reforms, and strategic trade policies. While the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government (2004-2014) had once achieved an average of 10% GDP growth, its tenure was marred by scams and corruption, which slowed economic momentum. For Modi, achieving the double-digit growth rate consistently for the next two decades will be the ultimate test of his leadership.
The Economic Growth Challenge: Why 6.5% Is Not Enough
Bharat’s current GDP per capita stands at approximately $2,500 in nominal terms and $11,000 in purchasing power parity (PPP). In contrast, the United States has a GDP per capita of around $90,000. If Bharat continues to grow at its current rate of 6.5%, its per capita GDP will only reach $10,000 nominally and $44,000 in PPP by 2047—far from an advanced economy.
To truly break into the ranks of the developed world, Bharat needs to push its growth rate to at least 8-10% per year. A 1-2% increase in GDP growth can have a transformative impact, significantly accelerating wealth creation and improving Bharat’s global economic standing.
At an 8% growth rate, Bharat’s nominal GDP per capita would rise to $14,000, while its PPP GDP per capita would reach $60,000—a significant improvement but still short of the developed world benchmark. However, at a 10% growth rate, Bharat’s nominal GDP per capita could exceed $20,000, and its PPP GDP per capita would reach around $90,000, bringing Bharat into the league of advanced economies.
The question remains: How can Bharat achieve this 10% growth rate?
Trade Relations with Pakistan: A Potential Boost to Growth?
One of the most unexpected factors that could boost Bharat’s economy is a full resumption of trade with Pakistan. According to World Bank estimates, restoring full trade ties could add 1-2 percentage points to Bharat’s GDP growth rate, as increased job creation, reduced costs, and enhanced trade volume could potentially push bilateral trade from the current $1.35 billion to $37 billion.
While Pakistan remains a hostile neighbor, accused of fostering terrorism against Bharat, economic engagement could create economic interdependence and reduce conflict risks. A functioning trade relationship, similar to how Bharat and China continue economic ties despite border tensions, could benefit both nations. However, Pakistan must first assure Bharat that another 26/11 or Pulwama attack will never happen again.
For Pakistan, opening trade with Bharat would be a game changer—reducing cost of living, increasing employment, and providing access to Bharat’s vast market. This could weaken the hold of anti-Bharat elements in Pakistan, paving the way for economic collaboration instead of conflict.
The Global Economic Landscape and Its Impact on Bharat
As Bharat aspires to grow, global trade barriers are rising, with countries like the US and Canada imposing protectionist policies. While Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly advocates for strong US-Canada relations, anti-American sentiment among Canadians is well known. Similarly, despite geopolitical rivalries, Bharat continues to trade with China, keeping economic tensions separate from political conflicts.
For Bharat, the key to rapid economic growth lies in diversifying trade partnerships, reducing reliance on protectionist economies, and fostering regional cooperation—whether with Pakistan, Southeast Asia, or the Middle East.
Modi’s Leadership: The Need for a Complete Overhaul
Modi’s leadership, despite its strong pro-business stance, has struggled to push Bharat beyond a consistent 6-7% growth rate. One of the most significant challenges has been the country’s deeply entrenched bureaucratic red tape and excessive regulation, which have hindered the momentum of economic reforms initiated by Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh. Achieving the ambitious target of a 10% growth rate will require a fundamental restructuring of the government’s economic team, including the replacement of key bureaucrats and policymakers with highly skilled economic strategists. These experts must focus on reducing bureaucratic delays that obstruct businesses, encouraging foreign direct investment by eliminating excessive regulatory burdens, enhancing Bharat’s manufacturing capabilities under the ‘Make in India’ initiative, strengthening trade partnerships with global economic powers, and boosting private sector-led infrastructure development.
What Modi Must Do to Secure His Legacy
For Modi to secure his legacy in Bharatiya history, he must ensure that Bharat is firmly on the path to becoming an advanced nation before he leaves office. Attaining a consistent double-digit growth rate—something no Prime Minister has managed in modern Bharat—will be essential in achieving this vision. His remarkable success in Gujarat stemmed from the entrepreneurial spirit of Gujaratis, who are relentlessly focused on economic growth. However, the broader population of Bharat does not necessarily share this singular drive for commerce. Many still embrace a passive approach to economic development rather than aggressively pursuing expansion. Modi must instill a nationwide shift in mindset—one that prioritizes rapid industrialization, skill development, and an unwavering focus on economic productivity.
Reforming Bharat’s tax and investment policies will be equally critical in this endeavor. Foreign investors must see Bharat as a stable and attractive market, Bharatiya businesses should be able to scale rapidly without excessive compliance burdens, and startups and entrepreneurs must have seamless access to global markets. By implementing these transformative changes, Modi can leave behind a legacy of economic strength and ensure that Bharat moves decisively toward becoming an advanced global powerhouse.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for Bharat’s Economic Future
Bharat’s goal of becoming an advanced economy by 2047 is ambitious, but achievable—if the right policies are implemented. A 6.5% growth rate is simply not enough; Bharat must push towards an 8-10% growth rate to reach its target.
While restoring trade with Pakistan might seem politically unthinkable, economic pragmatism must take priority if it can boost Bharat’s GDP by 1-2 percentage points. Similarly, Bharat must adapt to global trade realities by focusing on regional partnerships and reducing bureaucratic inefficiencies.
For Modi, the final years of his leadership will define his economic legacy. If he can steer Bharat towards sustained double-digit growth, he will be remembered as the leader who transformed Bharat into a global economic powerhouse. If not, Bharat risks remaining a middle-income nation, forever just short of the finish line.
The post Bharat’s Path to Becoming an Advanced Nation by 2047: Challenges and Strategies appeared first on Global Governance News- Asia's First Bilingual News portal for Global News and Updates.
