Paromita Das
GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 8 October. The Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) recent foray into Haryana, the home state of its national convener Arvind Kejriwal, appears to be heading toward a significant failure. Early leads from the state elections indicate that AAP is on track to secure no seats, a major setback for the party that had hoped to replicate its success in Delhi and Punjab in the neighboring state. The implications of this failure are far-reaching, especially since it comes only months before the crucial Delhi Assembly elections, and it has already sparked discussions about whether AAP’s decision not to form an alliance with the Congress was a strategic mistake.
Failed Alliance and Missed Opportunities
AAP’s failure to secure even a single seat in Haryana is likely to intensify the debate over its missed opportunity to form a pre-poll alliance with the Congress. Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, had reportedly advocated for the alliance, recognizing that a united opposition could avoid splitting the anti-BJP vote and provide a stronger challenge to the ruling party. However, the alliance talks broke down over disagreements on seat-sharing. While AAP wanted to contest at least 10 of the 90 seats in Haryana’s Assembly, Congress was unwilling to concede more than seven, leading to a deadlock.
The breakdown of alliance negotiations was expected to hurt the Congress in several key constituencies, including Kalayat, Rania, Pehwa, Barwala, Jind, Bhiwani, and Gurugram. These are seats where AAP was seen as having some influence, and many analysts predicted that AAP’s presence might cause vote division, indirectly benefiting the BJP. Now, with the results suggesting that AAP may not win any seats at all, the question is whether the Congress would have fared better if it had agreed to a partnership with AAP to consolidate the opposition vote.
The ‘Triple Engine’ of Development: A Non-Starter?
One of AAP’s key campaign strategies in Haryana was its claim to bring a “triple engine” of development, referencing its popular governments in Delhi and Punjab, two states that share a border with Haryana. AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP, Raghav Chadha, had promoted this idea, suggesting that with control over Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana, the party could accelerate development and governance reforms in the region. This was clearly a rhetorical response to the BJP’s “double engine” of development slogan, which refers to the same party being in power both at the state and central level.
However, this promise failed to resonate with voters in Haryana. AAP’s strength in governance in Delhi and Punjab did not translate into electoral success in Haryana, where local political dynamics and voter preferences differ significantly from its strongholds. Haryana has traditionally been dominated by regional parties like the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and national parties like the BJP and Congress, and AAP struggled to make a significant impact on this entrenched political landscape.
Timing and Leadership Questions
AAP’s poor performance in Haryana comes at a time of leadership transition and internal turmoil for the party. Arvind Kejriwal, who has been the face of the party since its inception, recently resigned as Delhi’s Chief Minister following his arrest in connection with the Delhi liquor policy ‘scam.’ Although he was granted bail by the Supreme Court, his resignation and subsequent announcement that he would only return to the CM’s chair if AAP won the next Delhi elections have created uncertainty about the party’s leadership.
Kejriwal’s resignation has been framed as an attempt to seek “justice from the people,” positioning himself as a victim of political vendetta. While this move may galvanize his core supporters in Delhi, it has left AAP in a precarious position in the run-up to key elections. The timing of the Haryana elections—coming on the heels of Kejriwal’s resignation—has not helped the party. The absence of its strongest leader from the frontline and the shadow of legal troubles may have contributed to the party’s inability to gain traction in Haryana.
Implications for AAP’s National Ambitions
AAP’s failure in Haryana is a major setback for a party that has harbored ambitions of expanding its influence beyond Delhi and Punjab. The party’s success in Punjab had been seen as a springboard for growth in neighboring states, and Haryana, with its proximity to both Delhi and Punjab, seemed like a natural next step. However, this electoral defeat suggests that AAP’s model of governance, which has worked well in urbanized areas like Delhi, may not be easily replicated in states with different political cultures and voter expectations.
The loss in Haryana also comes after AAP’s poor performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it lost the lone seat of Kurukshetra it had contested and failed to secure any victories in the four constituencies it fought in Delhi. This string of electoral failures raises serious questions about the party’s ability to compete at the national level and in diverse political landscapes. AAP’s brand of politics, which has emphasized governance over identity politics, may have limited appeal in states where caste dynamics and regional loyalties play a larger role in electoral outcomes.
A Strategic Misstep?
The decision not to ally with Congress will likely be viewed as a strategic blunder in retrospect. The potential benefits of a united opposition front were clear: avoiding vote division, consolidating the anti-BJP vote, and presenting a stronger alternative to voters. Rahul Gandhi’s push for the alliance, recognizing the necessity of opposition unity, was sound political strategy. However, the failure of local leaders from both parties to reach a compromise on seat-sharing has cost both AAP and Congress an opportunity to make meaningful gains in Haryana.
For AAP, this loss may force a re-evaluation of its expansion strategy. While the party has successfully carved out space in Delhi and Punjab, its attempts to grow in states like Haryana, Gujarat, and Uttarakhand have largely fallen flat. The party will need to assess whether its current approach to electoral alliances, campaign messaging, and candidate selection is effective in states where it lacks a strong organizational base.
Conclusion
The results in Haryana represent a significant blow to the Aam Aadmi Party’s aspirations for national expansion. The failure to secure any seats in the state, despite contesting nearly all of them, is a stark reminder that AAP’s appeal in Delhi and Punjab does not necessarily translate into success elsewhere. More critically, this defeat comes at a pivotal time for the party, as it prepares for the Delhi Assembly elections in 2025.
The lack of an alliance with Congress, combined with the leadership uncertainty following Arvind Kejriwal’s resignation, has weakened AAP’s position ahead of the Delhi elections. While the Haryana results may not directly impact AAP’s chances in Delhi, the morale of the party’s workers and leadership could be affected by this loss. As AAP reflects on its performance in Haryana, it will need to rethink its strategy for expansion and electoral alliances if it hopes to remain a relevant player on the national stage.
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