Paromita Das
GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 15th October. In what has been a shocking turn of events for both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the 2024 general elections delivered a bitter blow to the ruling party in its once impregnable stronghold. Uttar Pradesh, which was long considered the BJP’s bastion, became one of the primary reasons for the party’s inability to secure a third consecutive term with an absolute majority at the national level. Hopes of replicating the 2019 performance, when the party clinched 62 seats, were dashed as it fell to a mere 33 seats—just over half of the previous tally.
Now, with by-elections on the horizon for ten crucial assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh, the political landscape is once again shifting. This electoral battle is pivotal not just for the BJP but for Yogi Adityanath himself, whose leadership capabilities are under the spotlight after the party’s disappointing performance in the general elections. As the state braces for a fiercely contested by-election, the question looms: Can Yogi Adityanath’s leadership revive the party’s fortunes, or will the BJP continue to struggle in these key constituencies?
The Political Landscape: A Tough Road Ahead for BJP
The upcoming by-elections will be held in ten constituencies: Milkipur, Karhal, Katehari, Ghaziabad, Kundarki, Khair, Meerapur, Phulpur, Manjhwa, and Sisamau. Of these, five were previously held by the Samajwadi Party (SP), three by the BJP, and one each by the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Nishad Party. The distribution of these seats indicates that the BJP faces a tough challenge, especially in constituencies dominated by the Samajwadi Party and other regional players. Furthermore, the outcome of these elections could influence the broader political narrative in Uttar Pradesh as the state prepares for its next assembly election.
The by-elections will be a litmus test for Yogi Adityanath’s leadership, especially as his political standing took a hit after the general election results. Many in political circles have started questioning whether Adityanath’s governance style, which once galvanized the BJP’s voter base, is now beginning to lose its magic.
Key Constituencies Where BJP May Struggle
Several constituencies in the upcoming by-elections present significant challenges for the BJP. Let’s examine a few in detail:
- Milkipur: Historically a Samajwadi Party stronghold, Milkipur was once represented by Awadhesh Prasad, who vacated the seat after becoming a Member of Parliament. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the Samajwadi Party won here comfortably, defeating BJP’s candidate by over 13,000 votes. With a substantial Scheduled Caste and OBC voter base, the SP is poised to retain its dominance in the constituency, and the BJP will need a significant shift in voting behavior to have any chance of success.
- Karhal: A bastion of the Samajwadi Party since 1993, Karhal is an uphill battle for the BJP. In the 2022 Assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav won this seat before vacating it for his Lok Sabha constituency in Kannauj. Tej Pratap Yadav, Akhilesh’s cousin, has been fielded by the SP in this by-election, bolstering the party’s chances. With 130,000 Yadav voters, along with significant Scheduled Caste and Muslim support, Karhal presents a difficult path for the BJP.
- Kundarki: This constituency, now vacated after the election of Jiyaur Rahman to the Lok Sabha, features a Muslim-majority electorate that has historically leaned toward the Samajwadi Party. With the BJP struggling to secure a foothold among the region’s significant Muslim and Dalit population, the party will need to deploy a highly strategic campaign if it hopes to gain ground here.
- Katehari: Another difficult seat for the BJP, Katehari is contested by the SP’s Shobhawati Verma, wife of MP Lalji Verma. This seat became vacant following Lalji Verma’s resignation, and the SP remains a dominant force here. Although the BJP has yet to announce its candidate, potential candidates like Dharmraj Nishad and Awadhesh Dwivedi face an uphill battle against entrenched SP support.
- Meerapur: This constituency has a diverse electorate, with 40% of voters belonging to the Muslim community and another 50,000 Scheduled Caste voters. RLD’s Chandan Chauhan vacated the seat after winning a Lok Sabha seat, and the BJP faces a challenge in this largely non-traditional stronghold. Speculation has arisen that the BJP may concede this seat to the RLD in a gesture of political accommodation, but the dynamics of the constituency will make it a difficult battleground.
- Manjhwa: Previously held by the Nishad Party’s Dr. Vinod Kumar Bind, Manjhwa represents a unique electoral dynamic with an almost evenly distributed caste composition. While the Nishad Party has traditionally had sway here, the BJP has chosen not to field a candidate from its ally’s ranks, opting instead for direct contestation. This decision could fracture the vote, adding an additional layer of complexity to the race.
- Sisamau: The disqualification of Samajwadi Party MLA Irfan Solanki has opened up this seat for by-election. His wife, Naseem Solanki, has been nominated by the SP, and with a significant Muslim and Brahmin voter base, the SP is in a strong position. The BJP will need to carefully craft its campaign to attract non-Muslim voters, particularly Dalits and Brahmins, to have any chance of success here.
Challenges for Yogi Adityanath and BJP
The by-elections present both a challenge and an opportunity for Yogi Adityanath and the BJP. On one hand, these elections provide a platform for the party to reclaim lost ground and restore confidence in Adityanath’s leadership. On the other hand, the political dynamics in these constituencies suggest that the BJP’s traditional base may not be enough to secure victory, especially given the strong presence of regional players like the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal.
Yogi Adityanath’s appeal, which has previously galvanized support in key regions of Uttar Pradesh, is being tested. The results of the by-elections will likely reflect whether the Chief Minister still holds the sway he once did or if voters are beginning to shift their allegiance to other parties in the face of new political realities.
Conclusion
The upcoming by-elections in Uttar Pradesh represent a crucial test for both the BJP and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. Following the party’s dramatic fall in seat count during the 2024 general elections, the by-elections serve as an opportunity for the BJP to regain its footing. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges, particularly in constituencies like Karhal, Milkipur, and Kundarki, where the Samajwadi Party and other regional players have a firm grip on the electorate.
Yogi Adityanath’s leadership will face an even greater test than before. His ability to address the doubts raised after the general election loss will be critical to the BJP’s success. While his charisma and hardline governance approach have previously resonated with a broad voter base, the political landscape is shifting. The BJP will need a more nuanced strategy that goes beyond mere reliance on Adityanath’s appeal.
The by-elections are not just a referendum on the BJP’s performance but also a reflection of the changing dynamics of Uttar Pradesh politics. For Yogi Adityanath, it will be a moment of reckoning—whether he can steer the party through these turbulent waters or if his influence is beginning to wane will become evident in the results of these key contests.
